Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Ok. Arkansas. I'm going to lay out an argument here (and I may be absolutely wrong, but I don't think I am) for why I believe that there's a really good chance that Arkansas will actually end up going for Obama, probably even to the surprise of Obama. At any rate, even if that doesn't happen, I still think it will end up being much closer than most people think.

First, you need to look at the total numbers of votes during the Primaries. Let's assume that those who cared enough to vote in the Primaries are 'likely voters' as it were, since they already have proved that they come out to vote. When you take the total of the votes for the top 3 Democratic candidates you get 303,932. When you take the total of the votes for the top 3 Republican candidates you get 203,991. You can see that Democratic voters outvoted Republicans by roughly 100,000 votes.

Next, take into account that roughly 88,000 new voters have been registered in Arkansas this year. I highly doubt that it's even, but assume that it is.

Assume that everyone who was partisan enough to vote for a Democratic candidate will vote Democrat. Assume the same for Republicans. If Sarah Palin were not the VP candidate for the Repubs I might entertain the notion that some Hillary Dems would go GOP, but that is looking very unlikely right now. Assume, for the sake of argument, that those who voted GOP will stay that way. Assume that 50% of the new voters go Dem, 50% GOP. That gives us a total of 247,991 Republican votes, and 347,932 Democrat votes. I think it's much more likely though that a large majority of those new voters will go for Obama, since Democrats have posted record numbers of registrations in Arkansas, and the number of registered Republicans is actually shrinking.

Of course, the real question is how many of the 1.57 million registered voters in Arkansas, most of whom are unaffiliated, will go. Well, the polls tell one story (the last one seems to have been in September, with McCain showing a 9 point lead over Obama), but the voting record for 2006 tells another story. The Governor is a Democrat. Most state office holders are Democrats. In short, Arkansas is turning Blue.

At any rate, we'll see how it goes soon. And I'm sure it will be interesting to watch.

Monday, October 20, 2008

The ginned up, trumped up charges of 'voter fraud' that the Republicans are going to use (among other dirty tricks) to try to steal yet another election just keep popping up everywhere. Indiana. New Mexico (almost). I'm sure there will be more. Meanwhile, McCain/Palin and the RNC hired a firm accused of massive voter registration fraud in several states. Yeah. Interesting.

Here's a question for you. Who wrote this?

The man of great wealth owes a peculiar obligation to the State, because he derives special advantages from the mere existence of government.

That's right. Teddy Frickin' Roosevelt. Good ol' Teddy, ladies and gentlemen..

Finally, here's a creative commons graphic comparison of the McCain and Obama tax plans. Just to lay it all out there for you. Rather than call McCain an idiot for confusing a progressive tax plan with socialism, I'll just let the graphic speak for itself.